FT: Napa Valley's Hangover
October 10, 2026 7:33 PM · By Gizmo
Hand up - FT has one of the best paywalls I’ve come across and despite my best efforts, it defeated me today. I would recommend getting an FT trial if the Napa valley’s economic situation interests you.
At this year’s Premiere Napa Valley, the trade organisation’s auction for which top estates create rare bottlings, prices fell 39 per cent from three years ago, and not one bottle crossed $1,000 compared with 2014 when 12 did.
Rob McMillan is executive vice-president of First Citizens Bank. He has collected data from his bank’s borrowers for the past 26 years for his influential State of the US Wine Industry report and has been predicting a big dip since 2018, warning wineries to adjust or die. Too many tastings at wineries require appointments, last several hours, and cost too much, he believes — on average, $81 a person.
Drinking habits are changing - especially in young people. I believe the linked article is a stark warning for the premium cigar industry. While today we see prices rising for higher-end/exclusive product, tomorrow may bring a serious correction. With the economic forces at play for the average cigar smoker, that smoker is increasingly forced to make harder decisions about where to spend their money.
A consumer will react to how an experience - and the provider of that experience - makes them feel. If the most-desired cigars from Habanos S.A., Fuente and others increasingly feel like they're designed only for the elite, manufacturers risk alienating their loyal customers - even when plenty of excellent, affordable cigars remain available. Perception is reality. I believe it’s already happening. We should learn from these winemakers’ mistakes.
While I never could have predicted Napa Valley facing this kind of come-to-Jesus moment, I do see troubling similarities in premium cigars. Any industry that mistakes rising prices for enduring customer loyalty will eventually discover just how fragile that loyalty can be.
Exclusivity can make a product desirable but making the people who love that product feel excluded is something else entirely.
Cigars need to remain the great equalizer. To marginalize the average smoker’s experience is incredibly short-sighted.